Democrats have opened a seven-point lead over Republicans in the race for control of Congress, according to a new NBC News poll released on November 1, days before Americans vote in the midterm elections on November 3.
The survey found that 52% of registered voters said they want Democrats to control Congress, compared with 45% who preferred Republican control. About 3% of respondents remained undecided.
How the poll was conducted
The poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters from October 28 to 30, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. It was conducted by Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates and Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies.
The seven-point gap is two points wider than in NBC’s previous survey, suggesting the Democratic advantage grew slightly in the final days of the campaign rather than narrowing.
Independents drive the lead
Among independent voters, Democrats led Republicans by 21 percentage points — a much larger margin than in the overall sample, and a key reason for the national lead.
That independent advantage matters because independents often decide competitive districts. But the poll also contains a warning for Democrats: Republicans still led in districts with Republican incumbents and in states that Donald Trump carried in the 2024 presidential election, where many of the decisive House and Senate contests will be fought.
Trump and the economy
The poll was released alongside striking figures on President Donald Trump and the economy. Sixty percent of respondents disapproved of Trump’s job performance, against 40% who approved — the highest disapproval recorded for him across his two terms in this survey.
About three-quarters of voters said they were dissatisfied with the economy. On which party would better handle prices, Democrats edged Republicans by just one point, showing that economic discontent is hurting the party in power without giving Democrats a commanding lead on the issue itself.
What the poll does — and does not — show
This is a national preference for congressional control, not a projection of how many House or Senate seats either party will win. A national lead does not translate evenly across districts and states, and the poll’s own breakdown shows Republicans ahead in some of the places that will decide control.
Other national polling points the same way. The RealClearPolling average put Democrats at 52.0% against 43.1% for Republicans, an 8.9-point lead, while an Ipsos survey conducted October 22 to 26 found Democrats ahead 53% to 44% among likely voters. The surveys asked different questions of different electorates, so their exact margins are not directly comparable — but together they show a broad Democratic national advantage heading into election day.
What happens next
Voting takes place on November 3. Whether the national preference shown in the NBC poll turns into a congressional majority will depend on turnout and on the distribution of votes in the particular districts and states that determine control — outcomes that will be established by ballots and official counting, not by any final poll.
Frequently asked questions
Does a seven-point poll lead mean Democrats will win Congress? No. It measures national preference at the time of the survey, not seats. District and state results decide control.
How reliable is the poll? It surveyed 1,000 registered voters with a 3.1-point margin of error. Like all polls, it is also subject to non-sampling error, including who responds and who ultimately votes.
Why do independents matter so much here? Because Democrats’ 21-point lead among independents is far larger than their overall lead, and independents are often decisive in competitive races.
Related reading on Emadan: Democrats Lead in Six of Seven Key Senate Battlegrounds in Final NYT/Siena Polls Before US Midterms and Trump administration takes California ballot fight to Supreme Court on election eve.
Sources
- Aaj English TV — Democrats open 7-point lead in race for control of Congress: Poll
- Korea Herald — Democrats lead Republicans by 7 points ahead of midterms, poll shows
- SBS — Ahead of U.S. Midterms, Democrats Lead Republicans in Congress Preference Poll
- Delaware Online — Who is predicted to win the midterms 2026?
- The News — Trump’s disapproval rating reaches 60 percent as Democrats gain ground in new poll
