Prediction markets are already trading Anthropic’s stock market debut — before a single share has been priced. After the artificial intelligence company behind Claude filed publicly for an initial public offering, traders on Polymarket and Kalshi have opened more than a dozen markets on how the listing will play out, wagering on its fundraising haul, its listing exchange and its debut valuation.
Reuters reported on October 28 that the markets have attracted tens of millions of dollars in combined volume. The activity shows how prediction markets, once largely tied to politics and economic data, are moving into traditional Wall Street territory — letting retail traders speculate on corporate events without buying shares.
What traders are betting on
On Polymarket, more than a dozen markets have sprung up around the IPO, Reuters reported. Traders are placing bets on the fundraising haul, the listing exchange and the debut valuation. Rival platform Kalshi is also drawing bets on subjects including which bank will lead the offering and which sector index providers will classify Anthropic in.
The Polymarket contract on the timing of Anthropic’s IPO had drawn $6 million in trading volume as of 9:30 a.m. ET (1330 GMT) on October 28, Reuters reported. A separate market on the company’s closing market capitalisation had attracted about $3 million.
These are binary “yes” or “no” bets, Reuters explained: traders buy and sell contracts tied to the outcome of real-life events, with prices moving as traders weigh the odds of each outcome.
A $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation range — reported, not confirmed
Anthropic unveiled its IPO filing earlier in the week of October 26, applying to list its Class A common stock on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the ticker ANT. The company has not set the number of shares to be offered or a price range, and its registration statement has not become effective — meaning no shares can yet be sold.
Reuters has reported the listing could value Anthropic at between $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion. That range is a reported estimate, not a figure confirmed by the company, and it should not be read as a guaranteed opening price.
Separately, crypto-linked trading indicators pointed higher: TokenPost reported that a pre-IPO perpetual contract tied to Anthropic displayed $1,894.49 on Monday afternoon, which — applying a provisional estimate of one billion shares — implies about $1.89 trillion. That contract is a derivative, not Anthropic stock, and the estimate may differ from the company’s actual share count. It is not a stock price.
Why the betting matters — and why it does not set the price
“Prediction market interest in Anthropic’s IPO is the financial equivalent of people lining up outside the Apple Store before a new iPhone release,” Michael Ashley Schulman, a partner at wealth management and financial advisory firm Cerity Partners, told Reuters.
Schulman added that it was “a healthy sign of robust interest” and that the wagers placed “may help the market zero in on its eventual public market opening price.” That is a possibility, not a promise: prediction-market prices reflect traders’ expectations at a moment in time, and they can move sharply as new information arrives.
Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, told Reuters: “The Anthropic IPO is going to be a crucial litmus test about both individual and institutional investors’ appetite for AI.” He added that prediction markets are “clearly becoming an integral part of many investors’ approach to financial risk management and speculation.”
Retail investors are still waiting for the opening bell
Even as prediction-market traders wager, retail stock traders are awaiting the official opening bell, likely next month, Reuters reported. IPO investing has long been dominated by deep-pocketed institutional investors, and although retail participation has expanded in recent years — including around Elon Musk’s SpaceX listing — issuers still allocate only a small portion of offerings to individual investors.
That gap is exactly what the prediction markets fill for now: a way to take a position on the outcome without access to the offering itself.
What is still unknown
The filing leaves the most important commercial details blank: the number of shares, the price range, the split between new and existing-holder shares, and the first trading day. Reports point to a November debut, but the timing will depend on market conditions and the regulatory process. Until an amended filing sets the terms, every valuation figure in circulation — whether from a prediction market, a crypto derivative or a media report — is an estimate, not a fact.
Frequently asked questions
Has Anthropic set its IPO price? No. Its October 26 filing proposes a Nasdaq listing under the ticker ANT but leaves the share count and price range blank.
What valuation are prediction markets implying? Reuters reported a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion range for the listing, while Polymarket’s closing-valuation market had drawn about $3 million in volume by October 28. These are traders’ expectations, not confirmed terms.
Can I buy Anthropic shares through a prediction market? No. Prediction-market contracts are bets on an outcome, not shares in the company.
Related coverage on Emadan: Anthropic Files S-1 for Blockbuster IPO, to List on Nasdaq Under Ticker ANT and Anthropic’s Seven Co-Founders Could Each Be Worth $29 Billion in a $2 Trillion IPO
Sources
- Reuters, “Prediction market bets set the tone for Anthropic’s much-awaited IPO”, October 28, 2026 — https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/prediction-market-bets-set-tone-anthropics-much-awaited-ipo-2026-10-28/
- TokenPost, “Anthropic Files for IPO as Crypto Markets Imply $1.9 Trillion Valuation”, October 26, 2026 — https://www.tokenpost.com/news/business/41273
Note: prediction-market volumes and odds are as reported on October 28 and will change. This article is not investment advice.
