The Dutch parliamentary election has ended in an unprecedented tie at the top, with the centrist Democrats 66 (D66) and Geert Wilders’ far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) each taking 26 of the 150 seats in the House of Representatives, according to a near-final count published by Dutch news agency ANP and reported by multiple outlets.
The result is a sharp reversal of the picture painted by the first exit poll on Wednesday evening. That NOS/Ipsos exit poll, conducted at 65 polling stations with about 80,000 voters, had put D66, led by Rob Jetten, narrowly ahead on 27 seats, with the PVV on 25 and the centre-right People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) on 23. NOS itself cautioned that the exit poll carried a margin of error of up to two seats — and as counting progressed, the gap closed entirely.
With more than 99 per cent of votes counted, D66 was reported to hold a small lead in votes — roughly 30,000 more ballots than the PVV, on about 16.9 per cent of the vote against 16.7 per cent — but the same number of seats. The VVD was projected third on 22 seats, followed by the Green Left-Labour alliance on 20 and the Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) on 18. Turnout was about 78 per cent, broadly in line with 2023.
A historic result for D66 — and a setback for Wilders
For D66, the result is its best ever. The party gained 17 seats compared with its 2023 showing, when it won just nine, and Jetten, 38, is now in pole position to attempt to form a government — potentially as the Netherlands’ youngest prime minister and its first openly gay prime minister, if coalition talks succeed.
“This is the best result for D66 ever,” Jetten told supporters on Thursday morning, after being welcomed with chants of the party’s optimistic election slogan, “Het kan wel” — “It is possible”. He has presented the result as a rejection of populist and extreme-right politics, telling reporters on election night that millions of Dutch voters had “turned the page”.
For Wilders, the tie is a major setback from his party’s record 2023 victory, when the PVV won 37 seats and became the largest party. The PVV has lost 11 seats. Wilders said on Thursday that his party should take the lead in coalition talks if it is confirmed as the largest party, and that as long as there was no full clarity, no D66-led exploration of coalitions should start. “We will do everything to prevent this,” he wrote.
Why the election was called
The snap election was called after the PVV withdrew from the governing coalition in June over an immigration dispute, bringing down Prime Minister Dick Schoof’s cabinet, which has since served in a caretaker capacity. All four parties in that coalition lost support compared with 2023: the VVD fell by two seats, the Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB) by three, and the New Social Contract (NSC) collapsed from 20 seats to zero, according to the exit-poll and count reporting.
The campaign was fought largely over immigration, housing and the cost of living, and was watched closely across Europe as a bellwether for the strength of far-right parties that have been gaining ground in Britain, France and Germany.
What happens next
No Dutch election has previously ended with two parties tied for first place, and the tie is expected to delay the start of formal coalition formation. Under the Dutch system, the largest party normally takes the initiative in exploring a coalition — but with the seat count level, and the final official result still to be confirmed by the Dutch Electoral Council in the coming days, that first step is contested.
Even if D66 leads the talks, forming a majority will be difficult. A government needs the support of at least 76 of the 150 seats, and no single party is close. Mainstream parties have ruled out governing with Wilders, who brought down the last coalition, so the most likely path is a multi-party centrist coalition led by Jetten — a negotiation that, in the Netherlands, can take months.
What is not in doubt is the scale of the political shift: a party that won nine seats in 2023 is now tied for first, and the party that won the last election has lost nearly a third of its seats. The count may still move by a seat as the last ballots — including some overseas and postal votes — are processed, but the central outcome, a dead heat at the top, is now the story of this election.
What remains uncertain
The figures in this article are from the near-final ANP count and the NOS/Ipsos exit poll, not the certified final result. The Electoral Council’s official announcement, expected in the coming days, is the authoritative result, and small changes to the seat distribution remain possible until then. Wilders’ claim to lead the talks is a political position, not a constitutional ruling, and no coalition agreement exists yet.
FAQ
Who won the Dutch election? No party won outright. D66 and the PVV are tied on 26 seats each in the near-final count, with D66 slightly ahead on votes.
Is the result final? Not yet. The count reported by ANP covered more than 99 per cent of votes; the Electoral Council’s certified result is still to come.
Who will be prime minister? That depends on coalition talks. Jetten is best placed to lead them, but no government has been formed.
Sources
- Xinhua, “Exit poll shows D66 narrowly leading Dutch parliamentary elections” — https://english.news.cn/europe/20251030/40f585f7b8354da0aef1d23fadddebf2/c.html
- The Straits Times, “Exit poll suggests centrists win Dutch vote, beating far right” — https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/exit-poll-suggests-centrists-win-dutch-vote-beating-far-right
- Messenger Newspapers (AP reporting), “Far-right populists and centrist party set for unprecedented tie in election” — https://www.messengernewspapers.co.uk/news/national/25584240.far-right-populists-centrist-party-set-unprecedented-tie-election/
- Kazinform, “Dutch election ends in historic tie between conservative PVV and centrist D66” — http://qazinform.com/news/dutch-election-ends-in-historic-tie-between-conservative-pvv-and-centrist-d66-47c02c
