The 2026 United States midterm elections are projected to cost $11.9 billion, making them the most expensive midterm elections in the country’s history, according to an analysis by the campaign finance research group OpenSecrets.
The projection, released on 30 October and based on Federal Election Commission disclosure data, puts total federal spending about 30% above the 2022 midterms, which cost $8.9 billion — $10.2 billion after adjusting for inflation. It would also exceed the total spent on congressional races in the 2024 election cycle, even though 2024 included a presidential race.
More than $9.5 billion had already been spent by mid-October, according to the latest FEC filings examined by BBC Verify, with the final total only becoming clear once post-election reports are filed. The $11.9 billion figure is therefore a projection, not a final count.
Outside groups are driving the increase
The sharpest change is in outside spending — money spent by groups other than the candidates themselves, principally super PACs. OpenSecrets expects outside spending to reach $3.9 billion in 2026, up 85% from $2 billion in 2022.
Outside spending favours Republicans overall by about $360 million. The two largest spending groups as of 30 October were the Senate Leadership Fund at $489 million and MAGA Inc. at $353 million.
Candidates themselves show the opposite tilt: OpenSecrets expects Democratic candidates to spend more than $2.2 billion by the end of the cycle, compared with about $1.4 billion for Republican candidates.
Political advertising accounts for the bulk of the money. Advertising tracking firm AdImpact recorded $11.15 billion in political advertising spending through late October, and October alone — the final month before Election Day — saw a record $4 billion in advertising, according to data reported by The Wall Street Journal.
The biggest donors — and the money that cannot be traced
The largest individual donor is billionaire Elon Musk, whose giving is reported at more than $445 million by OpenSecrets and at nearly $500 million — $483 million in one account — by other trackers. The figures differ because they use different cut-off dates and are still moving; most of his giving supports Republican causes.
The 40 largest donors together contributed $2.4 billion through 14 October, a record for this stage of a midterm cycle, according to the Brennan Center for Justice. Among them, groups established by billionaire George Soros donated $102 million to liberal groups, while cryptocurrency companies Ripple and Coinbase together gave $63 million to super PACs promoting the crypto industry.
At the same time, a record amount of money cannot be traced to its original source. OpenSecrets has already tracked nearly $1.47 billion in “dark money” — donations to outside groups that are not required to disclose their donors — in this cycle. That already exceeds the $1.35 billion record set in 2024, and OpenSecrets cautions that its figure is a lower bound because classification of the final pre-election reports is incomplete.
Why spending keeps breaking records
OpenSecrets traces the trend to the period since the Supreme Court’s 2010 Citizens United decision reshaped campaign finance law, allowing far greater outside spending. The Brennan Center points to three more recent factors: new donors from the artificial intelligence and crypto industries, a June 2026 Supreme Court ruling that lets political parties spend more in coordination with their own candidates, and a Federal Election Commission that had gone more than a year without a quorum as of mid-October, limiting enforcement.
The result is a campaign in which the money follows the closest races. In Texas alone, AdImpact counted $573.2 million in advertising for the Senate race, including primaries — one of the most expensive single contests in the cycle.
What the record does — and does not — mean
A spending record is not, by itself, a prediction of who wins. Money buys advertising, organisation and reach, but voters still decide, and several of the closest Senate races remained within polling margins of error on Election Day.
What the record does show is how the financing of American elections has changed: more money, more of it from outside groups and wealthy donors, and more of it untraceable — a shift that will continue to shape the campaigns long after Tuesday’s results are counted.
Related Emadan coverage: US Midterms 2026: Voting Underway as Democrats Lead Final Polls in Battle for Congress.
Frequently asked questions
How much will the 2026 midterms cost? OpenSecrets projects $11.9 billion in total federal spending, a record for a midterm election and about 30% more than in 2022.
What is driving the increase? Outside spending by super PACs, expected to reach $3.9 billion — up 85% from 2022 — along with record dark money donations that cannot be traced to their original donors.
Who is the biggest individual donor? Elon Musk, with reported giving of more than $445 million to nearly $500 million depending on the tracker and cut-off date, mostly supporting Republican causes.
Is $11.9 billion the final total? No. It is a projection based on FEC filings through mid-October plus spending patterns from past cycles; the final figure will only be known after post-election reports are filed.
Sources
- OpenSecrets — OpenSecrets predicts record $12 billion in midterm election spending
- TBS News — How money is shaping the record-breaking 2026 US midterm elections
- Times of India — $12 billion battle for US Congress: Musk, Soros and other billionaires pour in cash
