Los Angeles City Council member Nithya Raman is projected to defeat incumbent Mayor Karen Bass in the Los Angeles mayoral race, in a historic upset that would make her the city’s first Asian-American mayor. Decision Desk HQ called the race on Wednesday afternoon, after Raman pulled ahead in the vote count and held a lead of more than 26,000 votes.
The projection is not a certified result. Ballots are still being counted in Los Angeles County, and the result will not be certified until November 27. But the call marks a dramatic reversal for Bass, who led on election night before Raman moved in front in the early hours of Wednesday.
The projection and the count so far
Decision Desk HQ, an election results service, projected Raman as the winner at 4:49 p.m. on Wednesday, November 4, according to The Angeleno, a Los Angeles news outlet.
In the Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk’s 4:28 p.m. update on Wednesday, Raman had 405,193 votes, or 51.67 percent, and Bass had 379,069 votes, or 48.33 percent. That put Raman ahead by 26,124 votes out of 784,262 ballots counted in the contest.
About two-thirds of the expected city vote had been counted at that point, according to estimates cited by NBC Los Angeles and The Basin. Many ballots remain outstanding, and the margin could still shift as counting continues.
Other major news organisations had not yet called the race on Wednesday afternoon. NBC News still rated it too early to call, and the Associated Press had estimated earlier that about 63 percent of votes had been counted. Prediction markets had already moved decisively: traders on Kalshi gave Raman a 98 percent chance of winning by Wednesday afternoon, while Bass’s odds had fallen below 2 percent, down from 80.9 percent on Election Day.
A historic first for Los Angeles
If the projection holds, Raman, 45, would become Los Angeles’s first Asian-American mayor and only the second woman to hold the city’s highest office. She would become the city’s 44th mayor.
Raman was born in Kerala, India, and serves on the Los Angeles City Council. Her campaign drew support from progressive groups and Democratic Socialist organisations, according to CNBC TV18.
Her entry into the race came as a surprise. She joined the contest at the last minute, hours before the nomination deadline, despite having publicly endorsed Bass for re-election just weeks earlier.
How the race turned overnight
Bass was ahead when the first returns were posted on Tuesday night. Raman moved in front in county updates released after midnight, according to The Basin’s update-by-update tally.
By 1:44 a.m. on Wednesday, Raman led with 338,740 votes to Bass’s 334,762. By the 3:11 a.m. update, her lead had grown to more than 16,000 votes, with 377,458 votes to Bass’s 360,864. The afternoon count widened the gap by another 9,530 votes.
Bass, 73, was sworn in as the city’s 43rd mayor in December 2022, the first woman to hold the job. She had won just 34.3 percent of the vote in the June 2 primary, an unusually weak showing for an incumbent mayor, while Raman finished second with 29 percent.
Why Bass lost ground
The campaign was fought over the city’s most visible problems. A poll conducted by the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies and the Los Angeles Times from October 19 to 25 found that roughly 40 percent of likely voters considered reducing homeless encampments a primary focus for the incoming mayor.
Raman campaigned as the candidate of change, criticising Bass over homelessness, city services, housing and the handling of the 2025 Palisades fire. The devastating wildfire broke out while Bass was overseas on a diplomatic trip, and her administration’s response drew sustained criticism.
Bass’s tenure was also marked by criticism over the city’s housing crisis, rising living costs and the decline in Hollywood film and television production, according to Indian outlets reporting the result.
The Los Angeles result came on a night when Democrats swept races across the country in the midterm elections, a broader shift that also moved markets and reshaped the political landscape in Washington. Related coverage: Trump Rules Out Firing Hegseth After Midterm Defeat, AI PACs Spent Millions Trying to Shape Congress, Gold Reclaims $4,000 as Dollar Drops After Democrats’ Midterm Sweep.
What happens next
Counting continues in Los Angeles County. Ballots postmarked by Election Day and received within seven days will still be counted, according to LAist. The Registrar’s next update was scheduled for 9 to 10 a.m. on Thursday, November 5. Related: DOJ Warns California Officials of Jail Over Mail Ballots.
The county is scheduled to certify the election results on November 27. Until then, the outcome remains a projection, and the final margin could change as late-arriving mail ballots are counted.
If certified, Raman would take over a city facing a homelessness crisis, a strained budget, a struggling entertainment industry and the long recovery from the Palisades fire. Her first task would be assembling a transition and setting out how she plans to deliver on the change her campaign promised.
What is still unknown
- The final certified margin: thousands of ballots remain to be counted, and the gap between the candidates could narrow or widen.
- Whether other major news organisations will call the race, and when.
- Neither candidate’s formal concession or victory statement at the time of the projection.
- The shape of Raman’s transition team and her first policy priorities as mayor-elect.
Frequently asked questions
Who is Nithya Raman?
Nithya Raman is a Los Angeles City Council member, born in Kerala, India. She is projected to become the next mayor of Los Angeles, which would make her the city’s first Asian-American mayor.
Has Nithya Raman officially won the Los Angeles mayoral race?
Not yet. Decision Desk HQ has projected her as the winner, but the result is not certified. Los Angeles County is scheduled to certify the results on November 27, and ballots are still being counted.
What was the vote count when the race was called?
In the county Registrar’s 4:28 p.m. update on Wednesday, Raman had 405,193 votes (51.67 percent) and Bass had 379,069 votes (48.33 percent), a lead of 26,124 votes out of 784,262 counted.
Why did Karen Bass lose support?
Bass faced criticism over homelessness, housing, living costs, the decline in Hollywood production and her handling of the 2025 Palisades fire, which broke out while she was overseas. She won only 34.3 percent of the vote in the June primary.
Sources
- The Angeleno — Nithya Raman Projected to Win LA Mayor’s Race
- The Tribune — Indian-origin Nithya Raman projected to win Los Angeles mayoral race, defeating Karen Bass
- CNBC TV18 — Kerala-born Nithya Raman becomes Los Angeles’s first Asian-American mayor
- Moneycontrol — Nithya Raman set to make history as Los Angeles’s first Asian-American mayor
- OneIndia — Who Is Nithya Raman? Kerala-Born Politician Set To Become LA’s First Asian American Mayor
