New Zealand’s ruling National Party and the centre-left opposition Labour Party are neck-and-neck in the final days before Saturday’s general election, according to the final 1News-Verian poll released on Tuesday.
The poll puts the conservative National Party at 30%, up one point, narrowly ahead of Labour, which gained two points to 29%. Because the poll’s maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1 percentage points, National’s one-point edge is well inside the margin of error: this is a dead heat, not a confirmed lead.
The full party-vote picture
The Greens were up one point to 16%. ACT and New Zealand First, National’s current coalition partners, were each down two points, to 10% and 8% respectively. The centrist Opportunity Party was unchanged at 6%, while Te Pati Maori was up 0.3 points to 0.4%.
To one decimal place, the figures were: National 29.5%, Labour 28.8%, Greens 16.4%, ACT 10.0%, New Zealand First 8.4%, Opportunity 6.2% and Te Pati Maori 0.4%.
The poll was conducted between 29 October and 2 November 2026 among 1,006 eligible voters — 500 by mobile phone and 506 through online panels — and weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region, ethnic identification and education level. Its results are a snapshot of party support at that moment, not a prediction of the election result.
Either bloc needs Opportunity
Translated into seats, the numbers mean neither of the two main blocs can govern alone. On one seat-count assumption, the right bloc would hold 58 seats — National 36, ACT 12 and New Zealand First 10 — while the left bloc would hold 56 — Labour 35, the Greens 20 and Te Pati Maori one. Both would need Opportunity’s seven MPs to form a government; with Opportunity added, the left bloc would reach 67 seats.
That arithmetic depends on assumptions about Maori seats and on the overhang — the extra seats created when a party wins more electorate seats than its party vote entitles it to. Coverage of the poll notes the final outcome also depends on which side triggers the largest overhang and whether Opportunity enters Parliament at all. Under New Zealand’s mixed-member proportional system, coalition governments are the norm, not the exception.
Preferred prime minister
In the preferred prime minister stakes, National leader Christopher Luxon was down one point to 23%, while Labour leader Chris Hipkins was up one point to 19%. Green co-leader Chloe Swarbrick was up one point to 8%, New Zealand First leader Winston Peters was down one point to 6%, and ACT leader David Seymour was on 5%, down a point.
Why the final poll matters — and what it cannot tell us
Final polls matter because they frame the last days of campaigning: which party claims momentum, which smaller party becomes the target of coalition courtship, and where undecided voters may look. But a poll taken days before voting, with a 1-point gap inside a ±3.1-point margin of error, cannot settle who will win on Saturday.
What it does establish is the shape of the contest: two large parties separated by almost nothing, two established coalition partners slipping, a Green Party holding a substantial third-party share, and a centrist party — Opportunity, on 6% — positioned to decide which bloc, if either, can command a majority. That is why the campaign’s final days are likely to be fought as much over Opportunity’s voters as over the National-Labour contest itself.
What happens next
New Zealanders vote on Saturday 7 November 2026. The poll will be tested against the actual result — including whether Opportunity clears the threshold to enter Parliament, how the Maori-seat assumptions resolve, and whether either bloc can assemble a majority without a party it has not yet courted in public.
Sources
- Reuters — “New Zealand’s National and Labour in dead heat days before election, poll shows” (3 Nov 2026) — https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/new-zealands-national-labour-dead-heat-days-before-election-poll-shows-2026-11-03/
- Otago Daily Times — “National and Labour in dead heat days before election” — https://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/latest-poll-puts-national-just-ahead-of-labour-e48iy8qg
- The Press — “Latest 1News poll has National ahead of Labour by a point” — https://www.thepress.co.nz/politics/361110637/latest-1news-poll-has-national-ahead-labour-point?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=threads
- NZ Herald — “Election poll points to Opportunity being in kingmaker position unless National triggers overhang” — https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/election-poll-points-to-opportunity-being-in-kingmaker-position-unless-national-triggers-overhang/AFHLJJNKZRCKLALBKYDLPDCMZY/
Frequently asked questions
Who leads in the final New Zealand poll? National, at 30% to Labour’s 29% — but the gap is inside the poll’s ±3.1-point margin of error, so the race is a dead heat.
Why does Opportunity matter? On the poll’s seat translation, neither the right bloc (58 seats) nor the left bloc (56 seats) reaches a majority without Opportunity’s seven MPs.
When is the election? Saturday 7 November 2026.
Is this poll a prediction? No. The pollster describes the results as a snapshot of party support at the time of polling, not a prediction.
