Japanese memory maker Kioxia fell as much as 15% in Tokyo on Monday after guiding to barely any profit growth in the December quarter, disappointing investors despite a record September quarter. The Nikkei 225 was also weaker in early trade following Friday’s sell-off in United States technology shares.
What Kioxia guided
Kioxia guided December-quarter operating profit of about ¥2 trillion (US$12.7 billion), compared with analyst estimates of about ¥2.35 trillion — a miss of roughly 15%. The guidance was barely above the ¥1.99 trillion reported for the September quarter.
The company also guided December-quarter revenue of about ¥2.5 trillion, against expectations of about ¥2.9 trillion, according to reports of its results. Kioxia blamed shipment timing, with some orders pulled into the September quarter and others pushed into the March quarter because of longer lead times for enterprise storage products.
Kioxia’s American depositary receipts had already fallen 17% on Friday after the results, which were released after Tokyo’s close on 30 October. In Tokyo on Monday, the shares fell from Friday’s close of ¥13,470 to an intraday low of ¥11,450, and were later quoted about 13% lower at ¥11,685 in morning trade.
A record quarter the market sold anyway
For the three months to the end of September, Kioxia reported revenue of ¥2.48 trillion and operating profit of ¥1.9947 trillion — the highest quarterly operating profit in its history, driven by demand for NAND flash memory used in data centres, phones and solid-state drives.
The market reaction was not about that quarter. It was about the next one: with NAND prices rising more slowly than in the previous quarter, and a stronger yen weighing on dollar-denominated sales, Kioxia expects revenue and profit to be broadly flat on the September quarter. It assumes ¥157 to the dollar for October to December, compared with ¥161 in July to September.
Kioxia said it expects a return to rapid growth in the March quarter, with 2027 output sold out and more than half of 2028 production already allocated, according to Bloomberg’s report of management comments. Analyst reaction was mixed: Citigroup called the outlook disappointing, while Nomura kept a buy rating but cut its price target.
Why it matters
Kioxia is one of the world’s largest makers of NAND flash memory, the storage chips inside solid-state drives, phones and data-centre racks. Its outlook is therefore watched as a signal for memory pricing and for the durability of the artificial-intelligence hardware boom, which has driven a sharp run in chip shares this year. Kioxia’s stock has more than halved since the Nikkei’s June record, according to Bloomberg.
The Nikkei 225 fell 0.7% in early trade on Monday, with chip-related stocks among the biggest decliners. Japanese markets are closed on Tuesday for a public holiday, so Monday’s prices are the last word investors will get for a day.
What is still uncertain
Monday’s move is an intraday reaction, and the final closing level may differ from the intraday low. Kioxia’s March-quarter recovery is management’s expectation, not a reported result, and NAND pricing in the year starting April 2027 remains uncertain, its finance chief said, given how much prices have already climbed.
FAQ
Why did Kioxia shares fall on 2 November 2026?
Because its December-quarter operating profit guidance of about ¥2 trillion came in roughly 15% below analyst estimates of about ¥2.35 trillion, even though the September quarter was a record.
What did Kioxia report for the September quarter?
Revenue of ¥2.48 trillion and operating profit of ¥1.9947 trillion, its highest quarterly operating profit on record.
What is NAND flash memory?
NAND flash is the storage technology inside solid-state drives, phones and data-centre storage racks. Kioxia, formerly Toshiba Memory, invented the world’s first NAND flash memory in 1987.
Sources
- Market Index, ASX 200 Live Today — Monday, 2nd November (reporting Bloomberg): https://www.marketindex.com.au/news/asx-200-live-today-monday-2nd-november
- AIStockWire, Kioxia (285A) falls 13% as NAND price gains stall (reporting Bloomberg): https://aistockwire.com/blog/kioxia-285a-stock-falls-outlook-nand-prices-stall-november-2026
- Global1 News, Kioxia Record Quarter Meets a 15 Percent Tokyo Drop: https://global1.news/kioxia-record-quarter-market-sold-it-anyway
- ExplainX, Kioxia Q2 2026: ¥1.995T Profit, Q3 Guide Misses: https://explainx.ai/blog/kioxia-q2-operating-profit-1-995-trillion-yen-q3-guide-below-estimates-sold-out-2027-claimed-vs-verified-2026
