The nonpartisan Cook Political Report’s final ratings have put Democrats as slight favourites to win control of the United States Senate, capping a dramatic final stretch of the 2026 midterm campaign in which Michigan’s Senate race swung toward Democrat Abdul El-Sayed even as a fellow Democrat endorsed his Republican rival.
Cook moved the Michigan race from toss-up to lean Democrat in its final Senate ratings on Monday, citing new public and private polling, including the Times/Siena survey. The shift also improved Democrats’ overall prospects of winning a Senate majority, with Cook projecting a Democratic gain of between two and six seats — though seven toss-up races mean both parties still have a viable path to a majority.
Michigan moves despite the Stevens endorsement
The Michigan change came despite an extraordinary late twist: Representative Haley Stevens, who lost the August Democratic Senate primary to El-Sayed by less than a percentage point and initially endorsed him, reversed course on Sunday and backed Republican nominee Mike Rogers, a former congressman.
Cook analyst Jessica Taylor wrote that the decision to move the race had been in the making before the endorsement controversy and that it did not change Cook’s view. She also noted that operatives on both sides do not expect a double-digit win, even though the final New York Times/Siena poll put El-Sayed ahead 53% to 42%.
Other late polls pointed the same way, though by smaller margins: CNN had El-Sayed ahead 49% to 42% among likely voters, a Mitchell poll taken on 26 and 27 October had him up 51% to 44%, and the RealClearPolitics polling average showed a lead of 5.6 percentage points. El-Sayed’s campaign said it raised $2.4 million on Sunday from more than 65,000 donors, its biggest single day, after Stevens’ announcement.
Democrats rallied around El-Sayed in the final hours, with Senator Elizabeth Warren joining him on the campaign trail in Detroit on Monday. More than 2.3 million Michigan ballots had already been returned before Election Day, according to the Associated Press. El-Sayed and Rogers are running to succeed retiring Democratic Senator Gary Peters; Republicans have not won a US Senate race in Michigan since 1994.
The Senate maths
Republicans currently hold 53 Senate seats, against 47 Democrats plus two independents who caucus with them. Democrats therefore need a net gain of four seats to secure a majority. The final New York Times/Siena surveys of seven key battleground states, conducted from 23 October to 1 November, found Democratic candidates ahead in most of them, with the remaining races effectively tied.
Other forecasters pointed in the same direction: Decision Desk HQ projected Democrats winning the Senate 52-48 and the House by a comfortable 241-194. Forecasts are not results, and several battleground contests remain close in broader polling averages.
National polls and the House picture
On the generic congressional ballot, a RealClearPolling average of surveys conducted through 30 October showed Democrats ahead 52% to 43.1%, an 8.9-point advantage. An NBC News survey conducted 28-30 October found Democrats ahead 52% to 45% — a seven-point lead — while an Emerson College poll conducted 24-26 October put the gap at 10 points. A national lead does not automatically translate into the same number of House seats, because the generic ballot measures nationwide preferences rather than results in individual districts.
Cook’s latest House ratings, updated on Friday, placed 222 districts in categories favouring Democrats and 195 favouring Republicans, with another 18 classified as toss-ups — 14 of them currently held by Republicans and four by Democrats. Cook shifted 12 House races toward Democrats on 30 October, including Republican-held districts in Colorado and Pennsylvania.
What happens next
Voting is underway across the United States on Tuesday 3 November, with all 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats and 36 governorships at stake. Early results will arrive through the evening, but control of the Senate could take days to settle if key races are close. This article reports pre-election ratings and polls only; it does not claim any result.
Frequently asked questions
What did Cook Political Report’s final ratings say? Cook moved Michigan from toss-up to lean Democrat and rated Democrats as slight favourites to win Senate control, projecting a gain of two to six seats.
Why is Michigan so important? It is a Democratic-held seat Democrats can hardly afford to lose, and its outcome could decide whether they reach the net gain of four seats needed for a Senate majority.
Do the polls guarantee a Democratic Senate win? No. Seven races are rated toss-ups, polling averages are closer than some individual surveys, and forecasts are not results.
Sources
- Newsmax — Cook Shifts Michigan’s US Senate Race Toward Dem: https://www.newsmax.com/politics/democrat-abdul-el-sayed-mike-rogers/2026/11/02/id/1274904
- La Nación — El-Sayed vs Rogers: Michigan Senate polls before Tuesday: https://www.nacionale.com/en/articles/michigan-senate-race-el-sayed-rogers-polls-what-to-know
- TRT World — Election eve snapshot: Democrats ahead in key Senate races: https://www.trtworld.com:443/article/e20bd34ec6bb
- The Nation — US midterms: Polls show Democrats ahead in battle for Congress: https://www.nation.com.pk/03-Nov-2026/us-midterms-polls-show-democrats-ahead-battle-congress
- Washington Examiner — Democrats rally around el Sayed after Stevens defection: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/congressional/4788972/democrats-rally-abdul-el-sayed-haley-stevens/
Related Emadan coverage: US Midterms 2026: Voting Underway in Battle for Control of Congress · Democrats Lead in Six of Seven Key Senate Battlegrounds in Final NYT/Siena Polls · Democrats Lead Final Midterm Polls by 8 Points as Voters Head to Tuesday’s Vote
