A storm headed for the central United States is forecast to bring serious flash flooding to the Southwest this weekend and soggy weather across a wide area on Election Day, Tuesday, November 3, potentially affecting voter turnout in key midterm races.
According to CNN meteorologist Tyler Ory, the system is developing just off the U.S. West Coast and will cross into the country on Saturday night, drawing in abundant moisture from the tropical Pacific.
Four Corners first: Sunday into Monday
Heavy rain is expected over the Four Corners states — Arizona, New Mexico, Utah and Colorado — on Sunday into Monday, with a risk of serious flash flooding. That is the most dangerous phase of the forecast: flash flooding can close roads and strand drivers quickly, even where rain totals do not look extreme on a map.
The system then marches east into the central United States by Election Day.
Election Day: soggy, not necessarily flooded
Soggy weather is likely on Tuesday across a widespread area stretching from the Great Plains and Upper Midwest to the Lower Mississippi Valley and the western Gulf Coast. Stormy conditions are possible for key races in Iowa, Kansas, Michigan and Texas.
The threat of flooding rain on Tuesday itself is currently low, CNN reports, but voters travelling to the polls could encounter ponding on roads. Thunderstorms are expected on the storm’s southern side, a few of which could intensify and turn severe from eastern Texas into Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Tennessee.
Blustery conditions are also likely across much of the affected area, especially in the Plains, with Kansas facing wind gusts of 30 to 40 miles per hour and up to 50 miles per hour in Nebraska.
Why weather matters for turnout
Rainfall and other active weather tend to suppress voter turnout, while sunshine has the opposite effect, according to multiple studies cited by CNN. That matters more than usual this year because the races in the storm’s path are close — but it does not decide them: more than 49 million people had already cast ballots through early voting before the storm arrived.
State by state, Iowa faces rain with the heaviest totals over the eastern part of the state from Monday evening into Tuesday midday, Michigan faces rain throughout the state for at least part of Election Day, and eastern and coastal Texas face rain with a few severe thunderstorms possible.
Forecast, not yet fact
These are forecasts, and CNN cautions they will likely change as confidence grows in the storm’s path over the weekend. No Election Day flooding has happened yet, and the flooding threat described for Sunday into Monday is a forecast risk, not a report of floods already under way. Voters in affected areas should check local forecasts and road conditions on the day, and use early-voting options where they remain available.
Sources
- CNN: Storm set to hit central US on Election Day as key midterm races hang in balance
- Times Now live blog: US Midterm Elections 2026 Live (CNN meteorologist Tyler Ory forecast summary)
- CNN via KION: Storm set to hit central US on Election Day
Frequently asked questions
Where is flash flooding forecast? The Four Corners states — Arizona, New Mexico, Utah and Colorado — on Sunday into Monday.
Will Election Day itself flood? The flooding-rain threat on Tuesday is currently low, but soggy weather and ponding on roads are likely across the central US.
Which key races could see bad weather? Iowa, Kansas, Michigan and Texas are named in the CNN forecast, with severe thunderstorms possible from eastern Texas into Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Tennessee.
Does rain decide elections? No. Studies link rain to lower turnout, but more than 49 million ballots were already cast early, and forecasts can change.
Related coverage: More Than 43 Million Ballots Already Cast as US Midterm Early Voting Surges and Democrats Lead Final Midterm Polls by 8 Points as Voters Head to Tuesday’s Vote.
